Alligator (5/8/13) — EUR/USD (H4)
Alligator — Bill Williams' strategy on three smoothed averages (SMA 5/8/13). Signal on the divergence of the lines.
Below is the historical statistics of the "Alligator (5/8/13)" signal on EUR/USD (H4) for the period from 2021-10-19 to 2026-10-12. All data is obtained using a single calculation methodology and includes both successful and unsuccessful signals.
| Entry price | 1.12182 |
| Stop Loss | 1.11759 (1.5 × ATR) |
| Take Profit | 1.13028 (3.0 × ATR) |
AEMMtrader technical signal, not an investment recommendation.
Historical statistics
Outcome streaks (last 30)
- Max. winning streak: 2
- Max. losing streak: 5
- Current streak: 4 loss
Outcome streaks (over the entire history)
- Max. winning streak: 4
- Max. losing streak: 9
- Current streak: 4 loss
With a risk of 1.5 × ATR, a streak of 9 losing signals in a row gives a drawdown of approximately 9R. This is the expected behavior of the strategy at the stated hit rate.
Comparison of MTF groups
Historical results of signals depending on alignment with the higher trend. Two cuts are shown: over the last 30 signals and over the entire history.
Over the last 30 signals, counter-trend ones showed a higher hit rate (33.3%) than confirmed ones (26.7%). An observation for the current period — the market may be in a regime where accounting for the higher trend does not provide an advantage.
Outcome distribution
Timeout is not counted in winrate, since in this situation the trade did not end with reaching either TP or SL.
Last 30 signals
| Date | Direction | Outcome | Bars to outcome | Score | MTF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 12:00 | SELL | ✗ LOSS | 16 | 6 | Confirmed (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 | BUY | ✗ LOSS | 3 | 0 | Counter-trend (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-10-05 04:00 | SELL | ✗ LOSS | 6 | 4 | Confirmed (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 | BUY | ✗ LOSS | 6 | -4 | Counter-trend (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-09-21 20:00 | SELL | ✓ WIN | 9 | 3 | Confirmed (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 | SELL | ✓ WIN | 2 | 1 | Confirmed (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 | SELL | ✓ WIN | 9 | 0 | Counter-trend (Trend D1 Up) |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 | SELL | ✗ LOSS | 13 | 2 | Counter-trend (Trend D1 Up) |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 | BUY | ✗ LOSS | 6 | 5 | Confirmed (Trend D1 Up) |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 | SELL | ✗ LOSS | 6 | -1 | Counter-trend (Trend D1 Up) |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 | SELL | ✓ WIN | 25 | -1 | Counter-trend (Trend D1 Up) |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 | SELL | ✗ LOSS | 3 | -3 | Counter-trend (Trend D1 Up) |
| 2026-08-12 16:00 | SELL | ✗ LOSS | 10 | 7 | Confirmed (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-08-07 00:00 | SELL | ✗ LOSS | 3 | 8 | Confirmed (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-08-03 00:00 | BUY | ✓ WIN | 75 | -4 | Counter-trend (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-07-27 12:00 | BUY | ✗ LOSS | 6 | -2 | Counter-trend (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 | SELL | ✓ WIN | 19 | 9 | Confirmed (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-07-13 00:00 | SELL | ✗ LOSS | 2 | 7 | Confirmed (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-07-06 12:00 | SELL | ✗ LOSS | 2 | 8 | Confirmed (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-07-02 20:00 | BUY | ✗ LOSS | 22 | 0 | Counter-trend (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-06-22 20:00 | SELL | ✓ WIN | 9 | 1 | Confirmed (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-06-17 08:00 | BUY | ✗ LOSS | 3 | -2 | Counter-trend (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-06-09 16:00 | BUY | ✓ WIN | 20 | -6 | Counter-trend (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-06-05 20:00 | SELL | ✗ LOSS | 10 | 6 | Confirmed (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-06-01 00:00 | BUY | ✗ LOSS | 4 | 2 | Confirmed (Trend D1 Up) |
| 2026-05-25 04:00 | BUY | ✗ LOSS | 18 | 6 | Confirmed (Trend D1 Up) |
| 2026-05-19 04:00 | BUY | ✗ LOSS | 3 | -6 | Counter-trend (Trend D1 Down) |
| 2026-05-12 00:00 | BUY | ✗ LOSS | 4 | 2 | Confirmed (Trend D1 Up) |
| 2026-05-08 08:00 | SELL | ✓ WIN | 26 | -3 | Counter-trend (Trend D1 Up) |
| 2026-05-04 16:00 | SELL | ✗ LOSS | 8 | 0 | Counter-trend (Trend D1 Up) |
Full analysis EUR/USD
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Calculation methodology
All historical results are calculated using a single methodology.
| Entry point | close of the signal candle |
| Stop Loss | entry ∓ 1.5 × ATR(14) |
| Take Profit | entry ± 3.0 × ATR(14) |
| Observation horizon | 100 bars |
| Same-bar TP & SL rule | LOSS (conservative) |
| Timeout | not counted in winrate |
| Signal deduplication | minimum 20 bars between signals |
| Confidence interval | Wilson, 95% |
We publish statistics for all signals without exception - including unsuccessful ones. The absence of filtering by results is part of the methodology.
FAQ
What does winrate mean and why can it be below 50%?
Winrate is the share of signals where the price reached Take Profit before Stop Loss. With a Risk/Reward of 1:2, the breakeven point is at 33.3%, so a winrate below 50% is normal.
Why is the 95% confidence interval shown?
The 95% Wilson confidence interval shows the statistical uncertainty of the hit rate estimate for a given sample size. The more observations, the narrower the interval.
What is timeout?
Timeout is a situation where, within 100 bars, the price reached neither Take Profit nor Stop Loss. Such signals are not counted in winrate to avoid distorting the statistics.
Is this an investment recommendation?
No. All data is provided for informational purposes. AEMMtrader does not give investment recommendations.